Kesihatan ekonomi

Catitan di bawah ini bagus untuk jadi renungan. Para pemimpin kita menidakkan kesan kejatuhan ekonomi amerika ke atas keadaan ekonomi negara kita. Alasan  yang diberikan bahawa asas ekonomi kita adalah kukuh. Aku tidak mahir untuk menganalisa samada asas-asas ekonomi adalah seperti yang diuar-uarkan. Namun yang pasti dari pengalaman lepas, apa yang berlaku di amerika (mereka adalah pengimpot barangan malaysia) tidak akan memberi kesan segera kepada malaysia tetapi dalam tempoh masa yang terdekat. Bacalah pandangan penganalisis ini seperti yang aku paparkan dalam keadaan asalnya. Rakan dan taulan perlu prihatin terhadap situasi yang bakal melanda. Shipping Rates Hit Rock Bottom - I Hope You Understand What This Means

By Matthias Chang

Thursday, 15 January 2009 22:51

Global Trade Has Collapsed Totally   Shipping Companies Like MISC and Major Ports Will Be In Deep Shits   Revising My Previous Forecast On Growth   It Will Be Negative in 2009 For Malaysia   In a recent Strategy Forum which I conducted, I shared a very simple method of gathering “intelligence on our export trade” with the delegates.   I told them that all I need to do is to observe the ships departing from the ports. I look at the load waterline (L.W.L. - the waterline at which the ship will float when loaded to its designed draft). This will indicate whether a ship is fully laden with cargo. This is simple common sense.   In the past few weeks, many ships were not fully laden. This means that we are not shipping out that many exports – Q.E.D! The authorities can fudge the figures, but the load water-line cannot lie.   Today, if you go to Singapore, ships are all over the port and idling for want of cargo.   It has now been reported that shipping rates for containers hit zero. Holy smoke, the shit has really hit the ceiling fan! This has never happened before. This means that demand for industrial goods have slumped big time. World trade has collapsed. Exporting economies in Asia have been hit hard by the fall in demand in US and Europe.   Last year, I reported and drew your attention that the Baltic Dry Index which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore, grains etc. crashed – dropping a whopping 96 per cent.   Some idiots in Malaysia have been trumpeting for over a year that Asia’s economies have de-coupled from the Western economies. This is bullshit!   A big chunk of our exports goes to USA and Europe. Now that these markets have collapsed, it is only time that we will face a major downturn that will be deep and long which I estimate will commence by end of the first quarter 2009.   Had Malaysia took pre-emptive measures in 2006 and early 2007, we could have mitigated our exposure. But Badawi was “sleeping” and his stupid 4th Floor boys were too concerned in plundering the economy for themselves, and to quote one of them, “it is our turn.”   Now is too late.   Even RM73 Billion may not be enough to bailout those corporate entities considered too big to be allowed to fail.   It is time to start PRAYING!